Simulating Public Opinion

            Understanding the nuances of public opinion is a challenge for me, as it is so hard to pin down what it actually is. Yet, for someone like me – who writes books and runs games where I need to know what entire societies are thinking – it’s important for me to continue striving to understand what they are, where they come from, and how they can be portrayed.

            Through my explorations, I have discovered two key points to understanding the currents of public opinion: the source of information, and how much the person receiving said information trusts the source. For example, one day I read two articles on the same political gathering – one from a right-wing source, and the other from a left-wing source. Due to my own leanings, I instinctively distrusted what was said in one of them, and wanted to believe what was in the other. However, being the type of person I am, the opinion I ended up with was that the truth was partway between the two – though I still favored the one I wanted to believe.

            Another factor that needs to be considered is how readily people will change their opinions. We see a lot of it these days, where one piece of information that goes viral on the internet can take people from thinking someone is amazing to hating them – or vise versa, though this seems to be less common. In many cases, it’s remarkable how easily people will flip their opinions – and they won’t even bother checking into the information before changing their opinions, which is remarkable in this age of satirical news sites and deliberately misleading article titles.

            It appears from this that people are quite fickle, but this isn’t entirely true. While there are some people who will change their opinions at the drop of a hat, there are others who will dig in their heels and refuse to change, and still others who will carefully consider before keeping or altering their opinion. However, the important thing to note about public opinion is that it isn’t really made up of all the opinions of the people who make up the public, and it isn’t even made up of the majority. It is defined by those who speak the loudest, and those who are heard the most. Since the people who refuse to change say the same thing all the time, they tend to blend into the background, and the people who take time to formulate their opinions aren’t there to be vocal at the beginning, this means the bulk of public opinion is formed by those who are fickle. And since having more people supporting an idea puts pressure on others to agree with them, the fickle masses drive and shift the overall perception of the world.

            So, as it turns out, public opinion is simply the opinions of the loudest, most easily swayed individuals in a society. People’s actual opinions can be pushed and swayed by public opinion – because it is within human nature to try to fit in – whereas other people can’t be swayed at all. From a governing perspective, this is a very useful tool – because if you can control the perceived public opinion, you can quiet the people with opposing views – but it isn’t so helpful for my purposes. Yes, it gives me an overall view to present, but it doesn’t help with narrowing down what an individual character thinks.

            For that, it’s important to go back to those two points I mentioned before: where did the person get the information from, and how much do they trust that source? Public opinion can sway them of, of course, but how much of the information has reached them? How diluted has the information become trough the telephone-game? What are their own opinions before receiving the new information? People are more likely to believe something if they want it to be true or if they’re afraid it is true, so how does that impact them?

            That’s all very complicated, though, and while it’s sometimes necessary to go that deep, often it can be simplified into 3 basic views: in favor, neutral, or opposed to any given concept. Sometimes a few more complicated options need to be added, but even with a few more added, it’s fairly simple to define those basic perspectives. From there, one can be designated as the public opinion, and then the others can be assigned to characters as it seems appropriate, and they can even be tweaked from there to personalize them to the character.

            And that is how it becomes possible to realistically simulate the currents of public opinion, based off of my own observations and experience. All opinions are my own.

Check out my YouTube channel where I tell the stories of my D&D campaigns.

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

Also, make sure you check out my wife's blog and her website.


If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.

Opinionated Facts

            We humans have a very bad habit of assuming our opinions are facts. It seems a strange thing to do, but we do it nevertheless, and, once they’re formed, we will defend our opinions ‘til the end of the world, often regardless of other information.

            The fact that a man lies dead in his bed is indisputable. Yet, with no other information than that single sentence, you just formed an opinion about the cause of his death. If you readers were to express those opinions to each other, there’s a good chance you would end up arguing about it. Some would say the man died of natural causes, comfortably in his bed. Others would say he was murdered. Some might even posit that an accident occurred where he slipped and bumped his head on the side of the bed.

            A few more facts would only fuel the argument. The dead man is splayed on the bed, face down. It can be argued that this is how he sleeps, possibly tossing and turning. Of course, it could also be that he was killed, and that’s how he landed – or perhaps he was smothered. The splayed position also works for someone who has fallen.

            A glass of some clear liquid lies spilled on the floor beside the bed. That may sway some of those who believe that this was a natural death to the side of the murder-believers, but the staunchest supporters will insist that he could have knocked it off the bedside table as he slept. On the other hand, it could be poisoned. Is it even water? Perhaps the man had been drinking, which led to that fateful bump on the head.

            Facts are points of information, but what they mean is so often opinion. This is evident in the scientific process – when an experiment is designed, it is done with the intent of proving a specific theory – which means that there is already an opinion about what the results will reveal. If there is any room for interpretation in those results, what do you think the findings will be?

            The more we discover, the more humans become aware of this discrepancy. It has led many to believe that there is no such thing as reality – that facts are only there to support reality. This has led to all kinds of confusion and even beliefs that the facts, themselves, may be changed to suit one’s needs.

            However, there obviously is only one reality (the one I believe in, of course), otherwise we wouldn’t be able to interact in it. The real trouble comes from the facts – or, rather, either the lack of facts, or the way the facts are presented. For there is far too much information in the world for one person to discover on their own, and the only way to get a sufficient amount of facts is through someone else’s opinion.

            That means we are required to trust someone else’s opinion in order to gain the information we require. That seems reasonable enough – only, why would you trust the opinions of someone who has a different opinion than you?

            So, the facts are that a man lies dead on his bed. He’s splayed face-down, and there’s a spilled glass of a clear liquid on the floor. There’s also a red silk scarf wrapped around his neck. How did he die?

Check out my YouTube channel where I tell the stories of my D&D campaigns.

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

Also, make sure you check out my wife's blog and her website.


If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.

Truth or Satire?

            A few years ago, I found myself reading an article about a recent study. The article talked about how this study, funded by a major oil corporation, had found that an increase in solar power would kill the sun faster, literally sucking the energy out of it to make our electricity.

            At the time, I was unaware that this was a satirical journalism website. Nothing clearly labelled it as such. However, as I simply couldn’t believe what the ridiculous article claimed, I started doing research to find out the validity. Before I discovered t was a satire site, I found myself going through the comments, seeing if people were believing what the article claimed.

            Most didn’t. Likely, many were aware that the whole article was a joke. However, there were some who fervently believed that this was true – solar energy was sucking energy out of the sun and would cause it to burn out faster.

            Since then, I have seen numerous satirical articles shared on social media by people who think they are real. Because they share some of the views being mocked by the satirical tone, they readily believe the articles without taking the time to check the information.

            It is so indicative of society. We see something official looking, so we automatically believe it. Researching takes too much time and effort. So, if we want or fear it to be true, we’ll believe it.

            On the rare occasion that someone wants to look into the validity of what they’re reading, it’s nearly impossible to get a confirmation unless you can get to the source. With the internet, information is right at our fingertips – but so is misinformation.

            Sarcastic and satirical people often make the mistake of thinking others understand their sense of humour. Unfortunately, there are a whole lot of literal people in the world, who take everything at face value. It’s no wonder there are so many people with no understanding of each other.

            Adding to the trouble is the requirement for news to be entertainment. I saw an episode of Gilmore Girls the other day where the main character, aspiring to be a journalist, had her writing criticised for not having her opinions in it. It’s the sad truth about our news these days – it’s all about the opinions of the people presenting it.

            What we really need is a news service called something like “Just the Facts” which presents nothing but the facts of a situation. Then people are given the freedom to decide what they think for themselves.

            But, that wouldn’t be entertaining enough, would it? And it sounds like a lot of work. Why would we want to make up our own minds about things when it’s so much simpler to agree with someone else? There’s no need to think when you can blindly follow.

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

Also, make sure you check out my wife's blog and her life coaching website.


If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.

Perseverance for Data

            This week, I was talking with my wife about promoting her business. Starting a new business is a challenging and frustrating process, but spreading the word about it is the hardest part. A lot of time and energy gets put into figuring out how to reach potential customers and it can be disheartening when it doesn’t pay off.

            The important thing to remember, though, is that a business is a long-term prospect, as is figuring out what works for you. Perseverance is extremely important, as well as collecting additional data before jumping to conclusions.

            Colleen was disappointed in a couple of marketing techniques she’d tried, without seeing any improvement in her business. She compared what she’d done to the one method she know has worked, which was getting listed on a website – far less time and work than her other, more creative attempts. I told her that these new attempts needed more testing before she ruled them out as effective. She didn’t have enough data to make the decision.

            To demonstrate my point, I pulled out a coin and told her to make a tally chart – heads vs tails. I explained what I had learned about probability in grade five; if you flip a coin enough times, it will eventually land on both sides the same number of times.

            I started flipping the coin. The first three flips were all heads, and we finally got a tails on the fourth flip. At this point, I asked Colleen what side the coin was most likely to land on next, based on the data we had. She said heads, of course – and that’s what we got.

            We kept on flipping the coin and the heads column kept a lead, but tails did catch up a little. With heads at seven and tails at six, I asked again – based on the data, what is the most likely side of the coin? Heads again.

            Tails finally caught up with heads when they had both landed nine times. At this point, I explained again that, however many times we flipped the coin, it would eventually even out. However, until we had gathered enough data, we had no way of knowing that – or, in our case, knowing if it was true.

            Applying this to marketing methods, I explained (or would have if Colleen hadn’t already figured out on her own) that having a clever marketing method not yield any results once or twice does not provide enough information to call it faulty. Perseverance is required so that enough data may be gained to determine what does and doesn’t work. Then, a decision to continue or discontinue the method may be made.

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

Also, make sure you check out my wife's blog and her life coaching website.


If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.

Amazing Children

            Every now and then, usually while selling my wares at shows, I encounter children who amaze me with how smart and mature they are for their age. This weekend at ConBravo! I actually met two separate ones, each somewhere between the ages of seven and ten.

            The first came into my booth with one of her friends and they were admiring my various chainmaille products. The friend picked up a bracelet and exclaimed upon the price. This girl turned to her friend and admonished, “Don’t say that; they put a lot of hard work into what they make.” The friend then promptly assured me that she had only been expressing disappointment that she didn’t have enough money for the bracelet.

            This exchange astounded me, because I often get people (adults) who comment on how much various items cost – simply because they don’t understand the difference between something handmade and something mass produced in a factory. Yet, here was a child, obviously quite capable of making that distinction and aware enough to notice it.

            After this, it was incredible to have something similar happen a second time. Another girl, younger than the first, came to my booth, exclaiming on how beautiful everything was. The chainmaille shirt I had on display (it would be a full length dress on her) particularly caught her eye. She said it must have taken a lot of work and asked how much time it had taken and how many rings were in it. Then she started guessing at the price, saying “150, no, 200 dollars!” (obviously a large amount, especially to someone so young.) When I corrected her to $650, she, without hesitation, looked me in the eye and said, “It’s worth it.”

            To come across two children in the same show who are so aware of such things was something I thought impossible. It got me thinking, though, about how adults view children. We tend to assume that since they are smaller and younger than us, they still have a lot to learn. Following that thought, we often underestimate their knowledge and their ability to understand things.

            It makes me wonder how much our society holds children back from their potential. Not all of them, of course – everyone learns at different speeds – but it seems to me we group them into little boxes based on their ages and decide how much they are ready to know. It’s possible that, exposed to more information, they could learn far more. That’s what children are, after all – learning machines. The more information we give them, the more they absorb. Too often, I think, we decide they aren’t ready for things because they’re so young. Yet, there are eight-year-olds out there smarter and more mature than many people who have been deemed “adults”.

            I think it’s time to stop underestimating and talking down to children. If we allow them all the information they want and help them to learn at their own speed (rather than pushing them too hard in directions they aren’t interested or slowing them down because they “aren’t ready”), treating them as equals rather than inferiors, imagine what they could grow up to be.

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.

World Building is Fun

            I think one of the most important traits in an author is a love of knowledge. Why? Because we have to know the oddest things so we can make our books realistic. Some of the most obscure things come up.

            Recently I’ve been doing a lot of world building, getting a very detailed portion of my world developed for a series I’m planning. My research taught me all kinds of things, like you can raise 100 pigs on the same amount of land you need for one cow (free grazing – about 5 acres, in case you’re curious), that dinosaurs only lived about 30 years, and that there are vast stretches of underground, water-filled caves that are the only sources of fresh water in some parts of the world.

            I saw a quote once (and can’t find who said it) that an author must be an expert on everything. When Terry Pratchett wrote The Amazing Morris and his Educated Rodents, he said that by the time he was done, he knew more about rats than anyone would ever want to know.

You might wonder why what seem like minor details matter so much, especially in fiction. Couldn’t we just make it up? Well, yes, we could. But then, along comes an expert in horses to tell us that horses treated the way they are in the book would die from being ridden too hard. This is a bad thing on two fronts – first, it conveys inaccurate information to people and it’s amazing how easily people believe what they read. The second is that it ruins the realism of the book for anyone with that knowledge of horses – which is terrible. Fiction is meant for people to enjoy, after all.

            So, an important part of the writing process becomes research into the oddest things. I can only imagine how often mystery writers worry what people would think if they could see all their Google searches related to how to kill people. It takes less than a pound of pressure to cut skin.

            With all the bitty details needed, enjoying learning becomes mandatory. Otherwise, writing becomes tedious work – and, really, why bother writing if you don’t enjoy it? I’m lucky in that I’ve always loved learning. On the flip side, my research skills are lacking, so it takes me a while to find what I’m looking for, but I tend to pick up a few extra tidbits along the way. I gain lots of new information, then add it to my arsenal for developing believable worlds, stories and characters.

            World building is fun!

Click here to find the charity anthology containing a couple of my short stories.

If there's any subject you'd like to see me ramble on about, feel free to leave a comment asking me to do so.